CMS Projects Lower MA Premiums, Flat Enrollment for 2027
CMS is signaling calmer waters for Medicare Advantage. In a Sept. 28 news release previewing 2027, the agency projected lower average premiums and enrollment of 34 million beneficiaries, or roughly 47.4% of all Medicare enrollees, according to Becker's Hospital Review. That figure is essentially flat compared with the 2026 projection.
The projection sits below current reality. Actual MA enrollment reached 36.1 million as of June, so CMS is forecasting membership that trails where the program already stands. That gap suggests the agency expects the years of rapid MA growth to plateau as plans absorb tighter payment rules, higher medical costs, and benefit trims.
For payers, lower projected premiums are a competitive marketing point but come amid margin pressure that has pushed insurers to exit markets and cut supplemental benefits. For hospitals and beneficiaries, the practical question is whether stable premiums hold once final bids and star ratings land ahead of the annual enrollment period.
Sources